Climate or disturbance temperate forest structural change and carbon sink potential, bioRxiv, 2018-11-27

ABSTRACTAnticipating forest responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes requires understanding long-term successional processes and aggregating these local processes into global relevance. Estimates of existing forest structure and biomass are improving globally; however, vegetation models continue to show substantial spread in predictions of future land carbon uptake and the roles of forest structural change and demography are increasingly being recognized as important. To identify mechanisms that drive change in tree size, density, and carbon, we need a better understanding of forest structural trajectories and the factors that affect those trajectories. Here we reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of structural change in temperate forests, as predicted by successional theory, and identify significant sensitivity to climatic precipitation and temperature anomalies using large datasets and empirical modeling. For example, in the eastern US above average temperature (+1°C) was associated with a 27% (−0.4±0.1 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) reduction in productivity attributed to higher rates of disease (+23%), weather disturbance (+57%), and sapling mortality. Projections of future vegetative carbon sink potential suggests biomass would be lowest on managed lands (72±2 Mg C ha-1) and highest when larger trees survive in undisturbed conditions (153±21 Mg C ha-1). Overall, the indirect effects of disturbance and mortality were considerably larger than the direct effects of climate on productivity when predicting future vegetative carbon sinks. Results provide robust comparisons for global vegetation models, and valuable projections for management and carbon mitigation efforts.

biorxiv ecology 0-100-users 2018

The ecological drivers of variation in global language diversity, bioRxiv, 2018-09-26

AbstractLanguage diversity is distributed unevenly over the globe. Why do some areas have so many different languages and other areas so few? Intriguingly, patterns of language diversity resemble biodiversity patterns, leading to suggestions that similar mechanisms may underlie both linguistic and biological diversification. Here we present the first global analysis of language diversity that identifies the relative importance of two key ecological mechanisms suggested to promote language diversification - isolation and ecological risk - after correcting for spatial autocorrelation and phylogenetic non-independence. We find significant effects of climate on language diversity consistent with the ecological risk hypothesis that areas of high year-round productivity lead to more languages by supporting human cultural groups with smaller distributions. Climate has a much stronger effect on language diversity than landscape features that might contribute to isolation of cultural groups, such as altitudinal variation, river density, or landscape roughness. The association between biodiversity and language diversity appears to be an incidental effect of their covariation with climate, rather than a causal link between the two. While climate and landscape provide strong explanatory signal for variation in language diversity, we identify a number of areas of high unexplained language diversity, with more languages than would be predicted from environmental features alone; notably New Guinea, the Himalayan foothills, West Africa, and Mesoamerica. Additional processes may be at play in generating higher than expected language diversity in these regions.

biorxiv ecology 0-100-users 2018

 

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