Objective versus Self-Reported Energy Intake Changes During Low-Carbohydrate and Low-Fat Diets, bioRxiv, 2018-09-21
AbstractObjectiveTo examine objective versus self-reported energy intake changes (ΔEI) during a 12-month diet intervention.MethodsWe calculated ΔEI in subjects who participated in a 1-year randomized low-carbohydrate versus low-fat diet trial using repeated body weight measurements as inputs to an objective mathematical model (ΔEIModel) and compared these values with self-reported energy intake changes assessed by repeated 24-hr recalls (ΔEI24hrRecall).ResultsΔEI24hrRecall indicated a relatively persistent state of calorie restriction ≥500 kcald throughout the year with no significant differences between diets. ΔEIModel demonstrated large early decreases in calorie intake >800 kcald followed by an exponential return to approximately 100 kcald below baseline at the end of the year. The low-carbohydrate diet resulted in ΔEIModel that was 162±53 kcald lower than the low-fat diet over the first 3 months (p=0.002), but no significant diet differences were found at later times. Weight loss at 12 months was significantly related to ΔEIModel at all time intervals for both diets (p<0.0001).ConclusionsSelf-reported measurements of ΔEI were inaccurate. Model-based calculations of ΔEI found that instructions to follow the low-carbohydrate diet resulted in greater calorie restriction than the low-fat diet in the early phases of the intervention, but these diet differences were not sustained.What is already known about this subject?<jatslist list-type=bullet><jatslist-item>Diet assessments that rely on self-report, such as 24hr dietary recall, are known to underestimate actual energy intake as measured by doubly labeled water. However, it is possible that repeated self-reported measurements could accurately detect changes in energy intake over time if the absolute bias of self-reported of measurements is approximately constant for each subject.<jatslist-item>What this study adds<jatslist list-type=bullet><jatslist-item>We compared energy intake changes measured using repeated 24hr dietary recall measurements collected over the course of the 1-year Diet Intervention Examining The Factors Interacting with Treatment Success (DIETFITS) trial versus energy intake changes calculated using repeated body weight measurements as inputs to a validated mathematical model.<jatslist-item><jatslist-item>Whereas self-reported measurements indicated a relatively persistent state of calorie restriction, objective model-based measurements demonstrated a large early calorie restriction followed by an exponential rise in energy intake towards the pre-intervention baseline.<jatslist-item><jatslist-item>Model-based calculations, but not self-reported measurements, found that low-carbohydrate diets led to significantly greater early decreases in energy intake compared to low-fat diets, but long-term energy intake changes were not significantly different.<jatslist-item>
biorxiv physiology 100-200-users 2018The high abortion cost of human reproduction, bioRxiv, 2018-07-18
Information from many large data bases and published studies was integrated to estimate the age-specific spontaneous abortion rate in an economically-developed human population. Accuracy was tested with published data from a diverse array of studies. Spontaneous abortion was found to be i) the predominant outcome of fertilization and ii) a natural and inevitable part of human reproduction at all ages. The decision to reproduce is inextricably coupled with the production of spontaneous abortions with high probability, and the decision to have a large family leads to many spontaneous abortions with virtual certainty. The lifetime number of spontaneous abortions was estimated for a “canonical” woman (constrained to have average age at marriage, first birth, inter-birth intervals, and family size) in two populations one with and the other without effective birth control (including free access to elective abortions). Birth control was found to reduce lifetime abortions more than 6-fold.
biorxiv physiology 100-200-users 2018The dynamic upper limit of human lifespan, bioRxiv, 2017-04-06
AbstractWe respond to claims by Dong et al. that human lifespan is limited below 125 years. Using the log-linear increase in mortality rates with age to predict the upper limits of human survival we find, in contrast to Dong et al., that the limit to human lifespan is historically flexible and increasing. This discrepancy can be explained by Dong et al.’s use of data with variable sample sizes, age-biased rounding errors, and log(0) instead of log(1) values in linear regressions. Addressing these issues eliminates the proposed 125-year upper limit to human lifespan.
biorxiv physiology 100-200-users 2017